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Trucking Industry

2022 Set to See Similar–If Not Worse–Trucker Shortage, Experts Say

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“I wish I had a crystal ball to be able to see the future,” said CPC Logistics vice president of operations and safety, Daniel Most, of the trucker shortage continuing into 2022. “I think there’s still going to be a shortage that’s significant because of the supply and demand. There is still going to be a lot of freight to move next year and the same [amount] or fewer drivers.”

The truck driver shortage is clearly not being left behind in 2021, many experts say, with American Trucking Associations estimating that at least 80,000 drivers are currently needed in the industry. By 2030, that number could reach higher than 160,000, all thanks to a lack of truck driver retention and recruitment, as well as higher demand than ever brought about by the surge in e-commerce following the pandemic.

Now, many carriers are scrambling to find ways to address the situation, such as offering high pay boosts, sign-on bonuses, and added benefits. Because of this, ATA now believes that trucker incomes are rising at a rate of five times more than they have in the past, and longhaul weekly driver earnings have risen by 25%–at least–since early 2019.

Still, these temporary incentives only come as carriers throughout the industry have to work harder than ever to remain competitive in the midst of an incredibly limited pool of truck drivers seeking new jobs. 

“I think as long as the freight market continues to do what it’s been doing and from everything that I’ve been hearing from the folks we work with, I don’t expect that to change, at least through the first two quarters [of the year] and possibly the first three quarters,” said Professional Driver Agency’s director of operations, Scott Dismuke.

A shift in truck driver perception and culture may be the key to solving this ongoing issue, he noted.

“I think it’s just going to be more of the same at this point,” Dismuke said. Unless we can start getting more drivers–newer drivers–attracted to the market, we’re still going to be up against the wall.”

In regards to current truckers being removed from the nation’s roadways due to failing alcohol or drug tests, the Drug and Alcohol Clearinghouse has reported 93,808 such violations since 2020, with a majority of those forgoing any return to the industry once their commercial driver licenses were revoked.

“Only 20,000 of them have done what they needed to do to get their license reinstated,” said CPC Logistics’ Most. “There’s 80,000 right there, and we’ll be on pace to lose another 50,000 to 60,000, potentially, next year. And then there are all the retirements. With the aging driver force, can we get the younger population interested in this type of job?“

Additionally, trucking companies need to begin heavily prioritizing regular communication with drivers while they’re on the road–so that truckers feel connected and supported, especially if any potential obstacles or vehicle troubles occur during a drive, Dismuke added.

“When it comes to the drivers that are in the market right now and new drivers entering the market, I think we’re in for more of the same,” he explained. “Carriers knowing what their drivers are saying right now is probably more important than it’s ever been, because you have to have the ability to identify and intervene in order to retain drivers right now.”

The boom in e-commerce will cause the current demand for freight to remain high, if not grow even more, Dismuke said, and 2022’s shortage severity will depend on just how much worse that demand becomes.

Finally, the ongoing shortage in semiconductor chips has exacerbated the issue as the available supply of equipment has become lower than usual.

“I think, once you get this whole chip thing figured out–a lot of the chips come from Malaysia–I think you could possibly see a pickup in the auto-hauling side of things,” he said. “Then, depending on what happens with the president’s restructure bill, you could see an increase in a lot of the construction…which would be good for flatbed [capability]. I think there are still a couple of issues that we need to wait and see what happens [with] that could actually increase what is already a very heavy freight market.”

ATRI Laments Both Small and Large Trucking Injury Verdicts; Ken Levinson Weighs in on Fair Trials

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Trucking industry complaints against small and large verdicts have been released in a new American Transportation Research Institute report, stating that even verdicts of less than $1 million have a lasting, cumulative effect on the industry, allowing it to experience significant financial strain.

The report also made sure to point out that trials consisting of cases involving deaths or injuries lead to larger awards, although it is unclear why this isn’t a no-brainer.

“The reality is that a jury and a judge hear evidence to value a case, and many times, families are left devastated and people are killed,” explained Ken Levinson of Levinson and Stefani. “Then, the verdict is high because the consequences and damages are so high due to unsafe behavior. I think any complaints against this are all propaganda to make more money for the insurance companies.”

In ATRI’s study, named “The Impact of Small Verdicts and Settlements on the Trucking Industry,” ATRI worked to dive into expensive litigation outcomes and the impacts even smaller awards have on motor carriers.

“While cases of this size are not individually as devastating to motor carriers and thus do not attract the attention of media outlets, in aggregate, they have a significant negative impact on the trucking industry,” the group said in its study.

Levinson noted that pointing to smaller cases that have deeper impact on the industry is tactical, and doesn’t give an accurate outlook of this particular litigation landscape.

“It’s more propaganda for the trucking industry to save money,” he said. “They’re using examples of outliers and distorting the facts to propagate their agenda and scare people.”

ATRI’s study had support from one attorney of Carlisle, Pennsylvania transportation law firm, Marcello & Kivisto LLC.

“This analysis proves a theory that I have always had: there are two markets as to the value of cases–the settlement market and the trial market,” firm attorney Doug Marcello, who worked with ATRI in its report. “There should be one market, and that is what a case is objectively worth.”

Levinson explained that this belief has little basis in the reality of the legal process.

“That’s absolutely absurd,” he said. “There is no objective value of a case—that’s why we have juries. This isn’t like a breach of contract, where the contract was made to provide a good or service for a million dollars and someone made a breach in contract. We’re talking about human lives—there is no objective value. That’s why we have a jury of unbiased citizens in the community hearing the evidence and assessing what they think the value is.”

In its report, ATRI claimed that cases involving severe injury have high average verdicts of around $368,237, and that cases involving deaths have the highest average verdicts of around $607,532. It also lamented findings that settlements typically lead to larger verdicts than jury cases.

“All sides present their case in a fair courtroom, and the jury, based on the evidence and facts, decides what they believe is fair and reasonable,” Levinson explained. “The other premise is that there’s a difference between settlement value and trial value—of course there is. Because there’s no objective value of a case, all sides of the equation evaluate the facts and the evidence and assess what they think a jury would do and they settle a case based on their best estimate and the assessment of risk. That’s why it’s different.”

Of course, cases involving any severe injury or fatality are deserving of large verdicts to mitigate those medical costs as well as the trauma endured.

“That’s why we have a jury of unbiased citizens in the community hearing the evidence and assessing what they think the value is,” said Levinson. “If there was an objective value, we could just plug it into a computer and it would spit out a number. There is no such thing; that’s like saying there is an objective value as to who should have won the last ten presidential elections. That’s why human beings make decisions. When you’re evaluating the death of a spouse or a child or a loved one, there’s no one objective value. That’s not how life works.”

A Look Into CVSA’s New Fatigue Management Program

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The North American Fatigue Management Program is now in place within the Commercial Vehicle Safety Alliance in an effort to reduce driver fatigue and the dangerous incidents that can come along with it.

The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration initially urged CVSA to create and manage the program, which would operate as a training initiative to educate and prevent overall risks in relation to driver fatigue. FMCSA and Transport Canada are now collaborating with CVSA to bring the program to full force.

Throughout a four-phase, years-long process, medical scientists and sleep analysts within the United States and Canada have worked to implement the North American Fatigue Management Program, which has a variety of methods in place to help finally bring an end to driver fatigue and fatigue-involved crash incidents.

These methods include techniques to identify and treat various sleep disorders, ways to utilize driver fatigue management technology innovations, and support in easily-accessible fatigue prevention training taking place online. Additionally, it includes fatigue prevention education for everyone involved in the transportation process–everyone from driver managers, driver families and spouses, safety managers, and the commercial motor vehicle drivers themselves, to motor carrier executives, motor carrier managers, driver managers, and freight shippers and receivers.

“For the past several years, Canadian and American regulators, carriers, and researchers have worked on the development of a comprehensive approach for managing fatigue,” said NAFMP on its website. “This work has been led by a consortium of government and industry agencies with an interest in developing a more effective means of dealing with professional driver fatigue. The NAFMP Steering Committee agreed to develop a comprehensive FMP that would enhance a carrier’s ability to effectively deal with the challenge of fatigue in a highly competitive, widely dispersed, and rapidly changing industry.”

Additionally, CVSA will work to boost the program and its outreach by offering program information sessions at CVSA conferences and events, hosting steering committee and program meetings to relay program initiatives and improvements, hosting live and pre-recorded question and answer sessions, moderating forums allowing users to ask questions and offer feedback, hosting fatigue management-related webinars and discussions, and offering English, Spanish, and French content to make this information as accessible as possible.

“The multi-year collaborative research to develop, test, and evaluate components of a fatigue management program for commercial vehicle operators has resulted in a thorough understanding of the issues, opportunities, and challenges inherent in managing operator fatigue in a 24/7 motor carrier environment,” explained NAFMP. “The NAFMP was developed through four distinct research, development, and testing phases.”

During phase one, focus groups and motor carriers worked to help in the design of the initiative, with researchers identifying specific fatigue management requirements and creating an effective method of reaching drivers, managers, and dispatchers, with six drivers undergoing initial beta testing.

During phase two, field testing allowed for training and educational materials to be easily assessed and developed, with treatment and screening for sleep apnea being implemented in the program. Six fleets and 38 drivers in Canada began evaluation, followed by eight additional Texas drivers.

Next, 77 commercial vehicle drivers in California, Quebec, and Alberta participated in operational field testing during phase three with findings including positive correlations between reduced critical events and sleep duration and sleep efficiency.

These trends included less fatigue reported in drivers, with improved reported sleep quality on duty days, longer sleep on duty days, a reduction in the proportion of drivers reporting critical events, a significant reduction in critical events per kilometers driven, and duty day improvement regarding sleep duration and sleep efficiency on those days as compared to duration and efficiency in sleep during rest days.

The reduction in drivers reporting critical events had dropped from 46% to 29% during this period, with a 40% overall reduction in critical incidents per kilometer driven.

Finally, phase four involved the creation of the Implementation Manual, training materials, NAFMP website development, and recommended guideline implementation based on all findings from the previous three phases.

Future of Trucking Looks Bright Following 2021’s Wins, Industry Leaders Say

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“We’re now seeing the government wake up and understand the implications not just on an industry that hauls 72% of the domestic freight tonnage in this county, but on the larger-scale economy and supply chain itself,” said president of American Trucking Associations, Chris Spear in a look back on the accomplishments of the trucking industry throughout 2021.

Truckers have stepped up to the front lines during this coronavirus era to keep the nation’s economy steady while also helping consumers receive the goods they need in such an unprecedented time of high demand. Workforce development and infrastructure boosts also saw major positive changes, according to ATA leaders,

“In five years in this role, we have never witnessed a better year for advocacy than 2021,” noted Spear. “You take two tier-one victories–infrastructure and the DRIVE Safe Act–and you begin to understand the impact that five years of work has finally delivered for our members and industry.”

Spear noted that along with a group of other industry leaders, he has testified over two dozen times before Congress regarding new infrastructure legislation, which came into effect this year through President Joe Biden’s $1 trillion Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act. This new law will offer highway and road improvement funding as well as bridge rebuilding funding over the next five years through the $100 billion dedicated specifically to efforts meant to update bridges and roads throughout the nation. The bipartisan bill will also bring about overall improved transportation options and congestion reduction for all drivers.

“It’s a very exciting announcement by the administration, and a recognition that this problem exists and that we’re actually going to take tangible steps to address this,” Spear explained, noting that this bill shows that both trucking and passenger vehicles will be able to lower carbon emissions, and that the industry is working toward improved business development and job opportunities.

“If you’re pro-job growth, this is a tremendous step forward,” Spear said. “If you’re pro-highway safety, if you’re pro-environment, this bill delivers on every single interest there is.”

Particularly, the legislation’s DRIVE Safe Act will bring significant industry-wide job growth, as it will offer opportunities for commercial driving candidates under the age of 21 to enroll in a training and apprenticeship program, allowing them to become able to operate CMVs within interstate commerce.

This initiative comes as the industry continues to face the largest truck driver shortage to date, which has been further exacerbated by the e-commerce demands brought about by the pandemic.

“You can make good wages–especially for all those that live in, say, the South or the Midwest–with excellent benefits,” saide Bob Costello, Chief Economist of ATA. “These folks are getting 401(k) [plans], paid time off, [and] health insurance. We’ve got good benefits. We have good blue-collar jobs”

Regarding further upcoming changes, independent contractors are also likely to become more commonly reclassified as employees through California’s Assembly Bill 5–which ATA claims would diminish driver freedom, disallowing drivers to create their own schedules and operate business as they’d like through the current owner-operator business layout as it stands.

“This is our tier-one effort to stand up our legal capabilities to not just fight in the halls of Congress or a regulatory agency, but in every state and every courthouse in the country,” said Spear. “And I think that is exactly what our members expect of this association–to leverage every opportunity to represent their needs and interests.”

An additional collaborative effort between the transportation industry and the White House will work to boost trucking recruiting efforts through initiatives that will focus on bringing in former military members and on guiding candidates through apprenticeship programs. Further recruitment incentives include driver pay and benefit boosts, which will likely continue far into 2022 as demand is expected to stay high, and the need for qualified drivers remains severe.

“Households continue to spend money,” said Costello. “They’re spending it more on goods than they traditionally have, versus services. We have a growing economy.”

Supply Chain Demand Made Worse by Holiday Shopping; Safety Must Still be Top Priority

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Online shopping during Black Friday and Cyber Monday are still prevalent, but the rush to get those online deals is fading in significance as the major e-commerce boom rages on—one of many impacts brought about by the coronavirus pandemic.

For example, between November 1st and November 28th of this year, online spending throughout the United States rose by nearly 14% as compared to the same time period in 2020–reaching a total of $99.1 billion for that month, with November and December’s combined spending expected to reach around $207 billion–a 10% boost from the end of 2020. However, Cyber Monday and Black Friday sales incentives have been dwindling due to supply chain strains.

Additionally, overall discounts for these once-major-sale dates have been diminishing; Adobe noted that average electronic discounts on these days only reached about 12%, as compared to an average of 27% the year prior. Jams in the supply logs and shipping processes of carriers are further exacerbating the issue. Between November of 2019 and November 2021, company out-of-stock messages increased by 258%.

“This is a make-or-break season for aggregators, and whoever has inventory is going to win,” said Goja CEO Walter Gonzales, whose company sells a variety of goods directly on Amazon.

For other Amazon sellers, getting inventory brought into the states efficiently and quickly is as imperative as ever, with Amazon sales increasing by around 50% as compared to last year (particularly for giftable products that are usually in stock).

“Kitchen products are doing very well,” said Pierre Poignant, co-founder and CEO of Branded Group, which sells various home and personal care goods on Amazon’s platform and is selling nearly 50% more products this year than last. “We made investments to make sure we had sufficient inventory for the holidays.”

Although many stores ramped up efforts for the usual holiday shopping rush, the pandemic has made clear that most people prefer to make their purchases–especially for gifts–conveniently online, a trend that’s likely here to stay.

“Physical Black Friday had this aura of craziness because people fought in stores and camped outside,” said Juozas Kaziukėnas, Marketplace Pulse’s founder and CEO. “Now that so much has shifted online, it’s lost its excitement.”

Many brick-and-mortar stores are now turning to increased online options, deals, and shopping incentives to keep up with these demand changes and trends, hitting cyberspace hard in a search for more customers during the holiday season.

“We’re giving away e-gift cards for $5,000, $1,000, and $500!” said Kohl’s in a holiday season tweet. “Follow @kohls, retweet this post, and include #KohlsCyberMondaySweepstakes for a chance to win.”

With online retailers turning to the trucking industry to bring in their needed inventory on time, as well as to ship and deliver their orders, many safety advocates have pointed to the already-challenging shipping bottlenecks that have been taking place during this new era of e-commerce, on top of a long-running and severe truck driver shortage that is making carriers take drastic measures to meet demands.

For instance, some carriers may be willing to bring in younger, inexperienced drivers with much less training in order to have more hands on deck during the holiday season, and truckers may also be feeling so much added pressure to meet their deadlines that they forgo certain safety protocols or drive longer hours with less sleep.

Keeping drivers behaving as safely as possible and ensuring that they are always well-versed in best practices while on the road is of the utmost importance, especially during high-demand seasons in the midst of an already-heavy trend of online shopping continuing throughout the country.

“It goes back to training,” noted Levinson and Stefani’s Ken Levinson. “Just because everyone’s in a rush to get things done, it’s not an excuse to let safety go to the wayside.”

It’s also unfair of carriers to put the pressures of holiday demands on the shoulders of their truckers, he added.

“Often, unsafe trucking companies have unrealistic expectations based on their truckers’ pay and delivery times that it creates a huge incentive to be unsafe, and we can’t have that,” Levinson added.

What Issue Best Encapsulates Industry Problems of 2021? The Trucker Shortage, Experts Say

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“This year definitely feels different than driver shortages in the past,” said CPC Logistics vice president of operations and safety, Daniel Most. “It seems that no matter what you’re throwing at different markets, you’re just not getting responses.”

Most’s comments come as the trucking industry has come to an agreement that the overarching challenge of 2021, which will likely continue in 2022, is that of the professional driver shortage prevailing across North America.

As older drivers leave the industry–some retiring early due to the pandemic and some due to other factors–and as consumer demands grow exponentially, the current shortage of at least 80,000 drivers–according to American Trucking Associations–will only get much worse over the next few years if major industry-wide improvements are not made.

“I think that you can’t really talk about driver turnover, looking at the last two years, and not talk about COVID,” said Professional Driver Agency‘s director of operations, Scott Dismuke.

Of course, he’s right–the long-lasting shortage has been worsened by the pandemic era, as the shortage prior to 2020 had reached about 61,500. With longer work hours requiring drivers to be away from home for days at a time, on top of mask and vaccine mandates, driver turnover has reached new heights and companies throughout the industry are scrambling to incentivize qualified drivers to join their fleets–turning to pay boosts, new benefits, and sign-on bonuses.

Still, the pool of adequate commercial drivers is limited, and trucking companies are competing heavily to bring those truckers on board quickly in order to meet demands.

“I think what was interesting is…the shift from 2020 to 2021,” Dismuke continued. “I think in 2020, COVID actually kept drivers from jumping [ship] a whole lot. With the economy shutting down, everything froze.”

Because of the confusion regarding where the industry would go at the time, many drivers stayed put, hoping things would restart as usual. Because of this, trucking companies were not looking for many new drivers until the boom of e-commerce brought higher-than-ever freight demand.

“Once the economy really started opening back up at the end of 2020–and really through the first three quarters of the year–I think COVID had a different effect on turnover, because you saw companies really raising pay…you saw a lot of active recruiting,” explained Dismuke.

These efforts came directly after a period where fleets weren’t expecting to have to incentivize drivers, because so many people were worried about losing their jobs.

“I think we saw the other side of the COVID effect with drivers starting to jump [ship],” added Dismuke.

Now, drivers may be looking for more than boosted pay–although many carriers have raised income levels more than once throughout the pandemic.

“Many carriers raised driver pay in 2021,” said Conversion Interactive Agency vice president of marketing and training, Priscilla Peters. “However, in most cases, that didn’t move the needle as expected for driver recruiting. Quality of life for the driver and home time have become the piece of the driver recruiting puzzle where carriers are making adjustments that have impact.”

The bipartisan DRIVE-Safe Act is working as a boosted effort to bring incentives, training, and job opportunities for younger truckers, and to allow drivers under the age of 21 to be trained thoroughly and become able to operate commercial vehicles in interstate hauls.

“I think the two options [for a solution] are creating a program where individuals can move into this field at a younger age, where we’re not forced to try and peel them away as a second career option after they’ve already been doing something [else], or [targeting] more of those other similar-type positions,” said Most. Additionally, recruitment should focus more upon bringing in more military, female, and minority drivers into the industry, he added.

“Everything that you see is talking about what drivers are looking for,” he said. “It’s the home time built in with good pay…built in with the schedules that they’re looking for. A lot of the jobs that we hire for require unloading freight–that makes it even more challenging, and so it just seems like you have to really adjust the type of work that you’re hiring for in order to get the candidates to start to pile in.”